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Armenia has no prospects of joining the Customs Union. And it is really good because it involves Nagorno-Karabakh, which is of paramount importance for Armenia, political scientist Andrias Ghukasyan told Tert.am.

“Armenia cannot join the Customs Union without Azerbaijan’s consent, and Azerbaijan does not appear to be giving its consent. The Customs Union member-states – Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan – have various economic, political and military ties with Azerbaijan. And Azerbaijan’s stance on the matter is of essential importance for them. With Azerbaijan not giving its consent, Armenia’s authorities have an alternative, namely, setting up a checkpoint on the border with Nagorno-Karabakh, which is not a feasible program,” he added.
Armenia’s attempt to join the Customs Union is a serious challenge to its relations with Nagorno-Karabakh.

“We see Azerbaijan objects to Armenia’s accession to the Customs Union, and we see [Armenian President] Serzh Sargsyan is unable to set up a checkpoint on the border with Nagorno-Karabakh. Therefore, I think all the talks about the Customs Union and membership in the Eurasian Union are aimed at diverting public attention.”

Armenia’s policy of joining the Customs Union is nothing but Russia’s “good wish.”

“This is the reason that [Armenia’s acting minister of economy] Vahram Avanesyan makes contradictory statements. This program is nothing, but a bluff. The authorities are trying to conceal their impotence.”

Armenia cannot join the Eurasian Economic Union without joining the Customs Union either.

With respect to official statements on Armenia joining the Eurasian Economic Union from January 1, 2015, Ghukasyan said that such statements should be expected “because the policy to show that Armenia can join the Customs Union and Russia is prepared for that will yet be implemented until the sides actually realize that there is no possibility. So as neither Russia can sacrifice its relations with Azerbaijan nor Armenia its relations with Nagorno-Karabakh. This process makes society think that Serzh Sargsyan is doing something.”

According to him, this is one of the “fruitless processes” like the Armenian-Turkish protocols, an Association Agreement with the European Union and so on.

As to whether launching the process was Russia’s attempt to prevent Armenia’s establishing even closer ties with the EU, Ghukasyan said:

“Russia is the world’s most mendacious states, ignoring international relations, and its conduct must not serve as a basis for political analysis.”

Head of the Helsinki Citizens’ Assembly Vanadzor Office Artur Sakunts can hardly explain such a U-turn in policy.

“Armenia’s authorities’ policy is so far from being logical that it is really difficult to find a reasonable explanation for such a U-turn. The only logic is that Armenia’s course is submission to Russia’s hegemony is obvious – no matter the Customs Union or the Eurasian Union,” he said.

Another question is Armenia’s importance for Vladimir Putin.

“I do not think it is so much important for him.”

Armenia’s links with Russia are so strong that there is no sense in assuming any further responsibility for Armenia.

The reason for the Armenian authorities’ hasty decision on Armenia’s accession to the Customs Union has never been announced.

“Loyalty to Russia is so important for them that they are willing to implement a 5-year program of joining the Eurasian Economic Union ahead of schedule,” Sakunts said.

With respect to acting minister of economy Vahram Avanesyan’s contradictory statements, he said that all of Armenia’s top-ranking officials lost the right to make independent decisions long ago.

“The September 3 statement proved that. May be we should look for the reasons in the changing opinions of the potential members of the Eurasian Economic Union – Belarus and Kazakhstan – because it is the changes in Russia’s relations with Belarus and Kazakhstan that are decisive. Armenia’s authorities have to submit to the changes. Those states’ changing conduct shows that the relations between the founding states of the Eurasian Union are not so smooth. So Armenia’s authorities are only recording changes in the situation. We have no right to make decisions.”