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Within its assessment of the legitimacy of electoral processes, HCA Vanadzor regularly examines various factors that affect or may affect the legitimacy of elections.

According to the RA National Statistical Service (RA NSS), in 1991 the population of the Republic of Armenia totaled 3,512,000, of which 58% (2,051.473) were eligible to vote, i.e. legally capable persons aged 18 and above. Perhaps it was due to the lack of general and systematic voting lists and ambiguous registration mechanisms that the voting lists of the 1990s had numerous gaps, and a large number of people were deprived of their right to vote. However, the regulation of this issue over time has led to the opposite extreme. Since 2012, the ratio of the number of voters has increased disproportionately amounting to 83%. According to the data of the RA NSS, as of January 1, 2015, the number of the RA resident population totaled 3,010,600. Meanwhile, the number of voters in the initial lists of voters published by the RA Police in 2015 amounted to 2,552,243; i.e. the ratio of the voters is 85%. In other words, while within the past 24 years, the RA population declined by over 500 thousand, the total number of the voters increased by nearly as much (see Table 1).

According to the RA NSS average annual rate of population distribution by age, 25-30% of the resident population is aged below 18. It follows that the voting population should have totaled 70-76% (or an average of 73%) (as it was the case in 2003-2008, according to Table 1). The 10%-increase in the ratio of voters in 2012 may not be interpreted in any way as a natural growth, since there is no numerical evidence or argument to believe that a similar natural growth occurred back in 1990-1994. The picture becomes clearer as we examine distributions by marzes (regions). Comparison of the numbers of resident population in the marzes of the Republic of Armenia and Yerevan city as of January 1 through the years of 2007, 2008, 2012, 2013 and 2015 and the number of voters in national elections in the same areas in the same years [1] comes to show that the declining overall population rate was accompanied by a sharp increase in the absolute number and ratio of voters. Actually, the number of voters in Lori marz appears to make 105% of the resident population (see Table 2).

And the ratio of the number of population and voters in Vanadzor shows that the above trend of disproportional growth of the number of voters results from artificial intervention or numerical manipulations. Hence, according to the 2001 Census data, the actual population of Vanadzor  totaled 93,823, and the resident population – 107,394. And as for the 2011 Census data, the number of actual population totaled 82,327, and that of resident population – 86,199. It follows that in 2001, the number of voters in Vanadzor should have totaled 75-80 thousand, and in 2011: 60-65 thousand. According to the data on the official website of the RA Central Electoral Commission, in 2005, the number of voters in Vanadzor totaled 101,205, whereas according to the RA NSS statistics, the resident population in Vanadzor in 2005 totaled 105,700; it follows from the above that 96% of the resident population had the right to vote. As for the year of 2015, the declining population rate has been accompanied by increasing number of voters; as a result, the number of voters in Vanadzor amounts to 117% of the resident population, which exceeds the calculated number by around 36 thousand or 60% (see Table 3).

Within the past days, the RA Police has provided various explanations to the effect that the data of the RA NSS are not based on the RA State Population Register data and do not include the persons absent for over a year from the country [2]. According to Gala TV, based on the RA State Population Register data, as of July 1, 2015, the number of persons registered in the Republic of Armenia totaled 3,302,424, with the ratio of voters making 77%, which still exceeds the alleged deviation (See Table 4). Without discussing the compliance of the numbers of resident populations in the RA State Population Register and RA NSS to the reality, it should be merely stated that such data suggest that while at least 15% of voters in RA voting lists no longer reside in Republic of Armenia and have no opportunity to vote, they are deprived of the mechanism to check the exclusion of any possibility that someone else might vote for them since the signed voting lists are unavailable. Given that the Census of 2011 also collected information on length and purposes for which the absent residents were away from their place of permanent residence, it appears quite easy to assume that such data might have been used to review the voting lists of 2012 to use the votes of the absent voters. At the same time, once there were the political will in place, only one decree by the RA Government might have established a procedure for the list of the RA nationals absent from the Republic of Armenia for long time and identified at least by the findings of the 2011 Census to be separated from the main voting. This would increase the confidence of voters to the effect that the voting lists were not inflated and the votes of absent voters would not be used. This list could be also easily reviewed by the RA uniform border crossing system, which, according to the information available, is already applied at every RA border checkpoint.

[1] Ad notam: the RA Central Electoral Commission’s website has no number of the 2008 Presidential election voters. Therefore, this number was calculated by adding the ballot papers provided to the precinct electoral commissions, which, according to the RA Electoral Code, exceed the number of voters by 3%.

[2] Initial Police “Reviews” and “Desirable” State Registry Data; 3,302,424 People Registered in the RA, http://galatv.am/hy/anatylitcs/3-302-424/ Ad notam: this media report was prepared before the RA Police issued the communication on the overall number of voters.

According to the data in the communication, the overall number of voters is higher by 2089, as compared to that in our report, which might be caused by a technical omission on our part and will be corrected upon review of the lists.